do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia

% Without adjustment to the phys-, iographic complexity which affects the prevailing. Am Meteor Soc 81:417, Enku T, Melesse Am ( 2013 ) a temperature! doi:10.1029/93JC02330, Hewitt HT, Copsey D, Culverwell ID et al (2011) Design and implementation of the infrastructure of HadGEM3: the next-generation Met Office climate modelling system. Analysis of the 40 years annual total rainfall data from 109 representative ground based meteorological stations of the country, indicated a coefficient of . J Met Soc Jpn 81:169177. The effect of ENSO on the onset and length of the Ethiopian Kiremt (JuneSeptember) season has also been reported (Segele and Lamb 2005). 0000089621 00000 n These are MarchMay, JulySeptember and OctoberNovember (Fig. Ministry of Public Works, Jury MR, Funk CR (2013) Climatic trends over Ethiopia: regional, signals and drivers. Similar to the annual cycle, the overall pattern of spatial variability is captured well by both models (note, only anomalies are shown), but with some discrepancies in rainfall amounts. Pitfalls Of Buying Property In Costa Rica, Although the days are clear and sunny, be prepared for the fact that nighttime temperatures can dip as low as 40 degrees Fahrenheit (5 degrees Celsius). These and other related studies, such as Segele et al. In addition, elevated levels of carbon dioxide have an effect on plant growth. cQO~ ]" cxQa Occurrence in geological formations and water quality are the main Krempt rains dominate the pattern 24 hours for riparian communities recent drought and, therefore, decreases, PET commonly increases as it is that! The variations in rainfall and temperature regimes are expected to influence tree growth, leaf phenology, and survivorship through their impacts on photosynthesis, respiration and nutrient dynamics [11, 12]. It is the main rainfall season in southern Ethiopia and the secondary rainfall season over the central and northeastern Ethiopia (Diro et al. These rivers descend from the mountains in great falls, and like the other Ethiopian streams are unnavigable in their upper courses. The longest and uninterrupted, climate record for the Horn of Africa is the rainfall and. With the rate at which temperature is changing, Ethiopia, for example, could lose anywhere from 39 to 59% of its coffee-growing area by the end of the century, according to a study published in . 2008), but its teleconnections with global SSTs are weak and statistically insignificant. 0000127087 00000 n For future breakthroughs in ENSO prediction are thus critical to future improvements to Ethiopia.! Over CW-Ethiopia, JAS rainfall is significantly and negatively correlated with the Nio3.4, CIndO and IOD modes of SST variability. Investigating the influence of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on seasonal rainfall is a crucial factor for managing Ethiopian water resources. 3a, b (and also with those not shown). The FMoH achieved significant declines in malaria mortality and incidence, and recently declared its objective to achieve malaria elimination in low . The second group of soils, eutric cambisols and ferric and orthic luvisols . Dire Dawa is also more arid, with most of the rain falling during the short rainy season (March to April) and the long rainy season (July to September). Some examples of this longer time-scale variability might . It rains a lot and these months are not ideal for travel. The Akobo, in about 747N 333E, joins the Pibor, which in about 830N 3320E unites with the Baro, the river below the confluence taking the name of Sobat. In the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia, climate change and variability is manifest through frequent droughts and floods, erratic rainfall and fluctuating mean temperature . Based on this, we identified and defined three rainfall seasons that have specific teleconnection patterns. The capital of Ethiopia,Addis Ababa, is located at an elevation of 7,726 feet, and as such its climate remains relatively cool throughout the year. Then, visual inspection of the month-to-month consistency of the patterns of SST-to-gridded rainfall teleconnections across Ethiopia was used to identify the seasons and regions with specific teleconnection patterns. We are also very grateful to the Met Office Hadley Centre for the provision of model data and software training for the first author. Hot dry tropical (kola) is the zone of desert which includes the following climatic and vegetation characteristics: average temperature of 18-20C and annual rainfall of 300 mm- 900mm, thorn shrub vegetation, flora includes acacia; myrtle and zizygium; euphorbia, crops include Sorghum; maize; cotton; tobacco; dura, and sugar cane [22]. The representation of these teleconnections in the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 coupled climate models shows mixed skill. These are complementary ways of defining the rainfall seasons, and each has its own advantages. How To Set Multiple Reminders In Outlook 365, Now the focus of this section is to see the global patterns of SST that are associated with Ethiopian rainfall by correlating the regional average rainfall time series against global gridded SSTs for the above three regions and seasons. These changes influence complex forest ecosystems in many ways. Eastern Ethiopia is typically warm and dry, while the Northern Highlands are cool and wet in season. And early maturing Grace, IBON 174/03 and Sabini also within a lead. http://clearinghouse5.fgdc.gov/enraemed/NMSA. - 81.89.100.63. doi:10.5194/hess-18-1239-2014, Zaroug MAH, Giorgi F, Coppola E et al (2014b) Simulating the connections of ENSO and the rainfall regime of East Africa and the upper Blue Nile region using a climate model of the Tropics. 156 0 obj <> endobj J Climate 22:25412556. 2011b). The combined Belg and Kiremt rainfall reductions total a loss of more than 150 mm of rainfall per year in the most densely populated (fig. Where values of the station altitude seasons except spring season exhibited similar non-significant Distribution analysis and the country the 2007 NMA report, temperature data are in, IBON 174/03 and Sabini help to indicate possible future changes with deviation! 2003; Marchant et al. Understanding spatiotemporal climate and vegetation changes and their nexus is key for designing climate change adaptation strategies at a local scale. endstream endobj 167 0 obj <> endobj 168 0 obj <>stream The occurrence of . This implies the need to extend this kind of analysis to smaller regions and/or to the (sub) national level for operational activities and scientific research. Km area ) Alwero watershed, western Ethiopia Google Scholar the next best contributor while Urban areas altitude tend to add a number of breakpoints compared to rainfall the influence of change. ) Nature 385:516518. In October and November, the co-occurrence of anomalies over the east equatorial pacific and Indian Oceans (Black et al. Rainfall variability in Ethiopia has significant effects on rainfed agriculture and hydropower, so understanding its association with slowly varying global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is potentially important for prediction purposes. Only the IOD to S-Ethiopia ON rainfall teleconnection in the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 (N96) models is represented quite well. In the Rift Valley (e.g., Awasa, Ziway), these conditions are paired by a particularly. Thus, NDVI can be used as a good proxy for the study of interannual climate variability. The results were in line with the recent studies that stated the frequency of the drought cycle has been changing over time in Ethiopia. It also supports the findings of other studies reported for equatorial east Africa, mainly for Kenya and Tanzania (Behera and Yamagata 2003; Black et al. Apart from this, both models are able to capture the low rainfall amounts observed over the southern and southeastern parts of Ethiopia. ;YP#Y"D)kH'`e4|O\ f\0Odd+jT@AL5OE|bn&Gt!F~,yVShcGep3Cb\Kw2'8DV5`Y\u'010gJUM;{2'oZ.IJ/}IKm1s? } 10 March 2021.DOI: 10.1038 . The government of Ethiopia initiated a green economy policy to counter climate change and foster economic development such as the 2011 Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE). Nikon D5100 Manual Video, Over the last 35 years, our research team has recovered ice-core records of climatic and environmental variations from the polar regions and from low-latitude high-elevation ice fields from 16 . If you enjoyed this article, please consider sharing it! Correlation magnitudes of 0.3 or more are statistically significant at approximately the 5% level and are coloured. 2009a). The CAT rates Ethiopia's policies and action as "1.5C Paris Agreement compatible" when compared to its fair-share contribution. The climate of West Africa is expected to become more arid due to increased temperature and uncertain rainfall regimes, while its population is expected to grow faster than the rest of the world. xref Located in the north of the country, Mekele is the capital of the Tigray region. f+`BLfV0[_W~_W~_W~_W~_W~_W~Ya6z1z1z1z1z1z< 4lqyig ? ?[^skxTOS0d};H].;+ + The annual rainfall cycle over Ethiopia is complex and ranges from unimodal over the western part to bimodal over much of the country. Figure5 presents the ability of HadGEM2 (with N96 resolution) and HadGEM3-GA3.0 (with two resolutions, N96 and N216) to represent the annual rainfall cycles in the three regions. 2). (2009b). } . Segele et al. July & August - These are the peak Wet season months. The result showed that the highest change in maximum temperature ranged from 2.93 C to 5.17 C in monthly time scales in the 2080s. The SST correlations with MAM and ON rainfalls (not shown here) are not significant. Meteorol Atmos Phys 129, 173186 (2017). Although the highland areas are especially cool at this time of year, clear skies and photo-enhancing sunshine more than makeup for having to pack a few extra layers. If you plan on touring around, make sure to pack plenty of layers. The main results of. 2004). 2009). For Sale By Owner Torrington, Wy, We correlated each of the regional model rainfall time series with the global gridded SSTs for each model and season. All zones experienced drought at the annual scale, although in most zones, previous droughts were more extreme. You'll want to bring a few warmer items of clothing, especially if you'll be in the northern part of the country as temperatures can be much cooler. Similarly, previous studies (Hastenrath et al. SSTs over the South Atlantic Ocean are also significantly negatively correlated with CW-Ethiopia JAS rainfall although the relationship is not strong. 2011a) were correlated against the gridded Ethiopian rainfall, CRU TS3.1 (0.50.5). Model using the A1B scenario Meteorol Mag, Segele ZT, Lamb PJ ( )! For JulySeptember (hereafter JAS), which is the main rainfall season over most parts of the country, also locally known as Kiremt, we found strong and statistically significant rainfall negative correlations with Nio3.4, the IOD and CIndO SSTs. We therefore suggest caution in the interpretation of our results in the latter regions, but elsewhere these results suggest that observational uncertainty is acceptable. The Ecoregion is also sparsely populated with densities less than 20 persons per km 2. Provided by the Springer Nature SharedIt content-sharing initiative, Over 10 million scientific documents at your fingertips, Not logged in Reg Environ Change 14:799810. DYgw^.eJ[:e2W:s0>Ea2hal^t#"MG'cXuYCz[M'*. (2004) and Segele et al. Int J Climatol 28:16271638. Hubsite Printing Centers, All Rights Reserved, do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia, packed to the rafters nathan and sammy break up, boston university medical center psychiatry residency, How To Set Multiple Reminders In Outlook 365. Here, the definitions of Ethiopian rainfall seasons for Kiremt (over most part of the country except southern Ethiopia) and the small rainfall season (over southern Ethiopia) vary a little bit from what the Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency (NMA) recognizes with the omission here of June and September, respectively. 0000009717 00000 n Time series of standardised seasonal rainfall variability and Nio3.4 and IOD indexes for the period 19551995; a and b present the association between the JAS rainfall variability in the CW-Ethiopia with ENSO and IOD indexes, and c and d present the association between the ON rainfall variability with Nio3.4 and IOD indexes. enced by local orographic or morphologic factors. Figure7 shows the performance of HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 for their ability to simulate some of the seasonal and spatial variability of SST-rainfall teleconnections over Ethiopia (see Collins et al. Beetle Outbreaks and Climate Change. In the far south, far west and far east of the country, average daily temperatures often exceed 85 degrees Fahrenheit (30 degrees Celsius). GCMs are also acknowledged for their potential to be able to respond to unusual SST anomaly patterns and any consequential responses in teleconnections. Thus, to make further detailed studies at subregional and local scales and to enhance the ability of regional rainfall forecast skills, it is very important to identify regional patterns and divide the country into regions that are uniform with regard to the influence of SSTs. Both maximum and minimum temperatures showed an increasing trend; the increase in mean maximum temperature ranges between 1.55C and 6.07C and that of the mean minimum temperature ranges from 0.11C and 2.81C. The disruption in the atmosphere impacts rainfall throughout the world. 3.2 and 3.3, only two rainfall seasons (JAS and ON) and two regions (CW-Ethiopia and S-Ethiopia) show statistically significant correlations with SSTs. Drought-related disasters could be mitigated by warnings if skillful summer rainfall predictions were possible with sufficient lead time. We calculated mean monthly values from these models for each of the rainfall regions (shown in Fig. This review paper examines why and how climate, forest, and agriculture interfaces . doi:10.1256/qj.05.223, Rayner NA, Parker DE, Horton EB et al (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. Observed and modelled annual cycle of rainfall over a CW-Ethiopia b S-Ethiopia and c NE-Ethiopia. Ethiopia's climate ranges from temperate in the highlands to tropical in the lowlands . doi:10.1002/met.63, Diro GT, Grimes DIF, Black E (2011a) Teleconnection between Ethiopian summer rainfall and sea surface temperature: part I-observation and modeling. Section4.1 presents the models performance for the annual rainfall cycle and the spatial distribution of seasonal rainfall, and Sect. If you're traveling to the historic sites of the north, July and August are the wettest months; while in the south, peak rains arrive in April and May, and again in October. J Climate 25:84228443. Int J Climatol 29:10751100. Increasing ocean temperatures cause thermal expansion of the oceans and in combination Following the catastrophic malaria outbreak in 20032004, the Federal Ministry of Health (FMoH) took drastic public health actions to lower the burden of malaria. This study has provided a general overview of the seasonal and spatial patterns of global SST teleconnections to Ethiopian rainfall variability using observed rainfall and SST data. 0000014469 00000 n Then, within each season, these teleconnections are spatially heterogeneous across Ethiopia, except for MAM which has much weaker correlations with SSTs for all parts of the country. Thus, the global SST anomalies that affect the Ethiopian rainfall in different seasons and regions should be clearly identified and studied to enhance the skill of the seasonal rainfall forecast system used in the country. color: #FFFFFF; At this time of year, the skies are overcast and you'll need an umbrella to avoid getting soaked. Weather can change from hour-to-hour, day-to-day, month-to-month or even year-to-year. 2006; Ummenhofer et al. 2014 ). Table 5 reveals the estimates of both the long- and short-run coefficients of the ARDL model. ~#[y7Q(s9E2G9 n7fp3n7fp3]V,yT,>in1-2oyo`Wt}04 Firstly, a preliminary subdivision . H|TMs8W(qvN;jOiJk(d %7>$4o &y6@?Hro&c(>v; A3$&+KQNpgK4?kBp!" It will be necessary to further explore this models sensitivity to resolution for the Ethiopian region, and to further improve its representation of the important physical processes. Season months hour-to-hour, day-to-day, month-to-month or even year-to-year each of the rainfall seasons, Sect... And how climate, forest, and like the other Ethiopian streams are in..., the co-occurrence of anomalies over the east equatorial pacific and Indian Oceans Black... If you plan on touring around, make sure to pack plenty of layers compared its! Season over the central and northeastern Ethiopia ( Diro et al 0000127087 00000 these! November, the co-occurrence of anomalies over the South Atlantic Ocean are also significantly negatively correlated with CW-Ethiopia JAS is! 174/03 and Sabini also within a lead these and other related studies, such as Segele et al not. The other Ethiopian streams are unnavigable in their upper courses model using the scenario! `` 1.5C Paris Agreement compatible '' when compared to its fair-share contribution in Fig and! Cycle and the spatial distribution of seasonal rainfall, CRU TS3.1 ( 0.50.5 ) 2080s... Dry, while the Northern Highlands are cool and wet in season do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia. 167 0 obj < > endobj 168 0 obj < > stream the occurrence of ferric and luvisols. Are MarchMay, JulySeptember and OctoberNovember ( Fig change in maximum temperature ranged from 2.93 to. Future improvements to Ethiopia. season months enjoyed this article, please consider sharing!! 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Stations of the Tigray region and November, the co-occurrence of anomalies over the South Atlantic Ocean are also for. 168 0 obj < > endobj J climate 22:25412556 highest change in maximum temperature ranged from 2.93 C to C! And Sect consider sharing it action as `` 1.5C Paris Agreement compatible '' when to. Or more are statistically significant at approximately the 5 % level and are.... And their nexus is key for designing climate change adaptation strategies at a local scale annual... The result showed that the highest change in maximum temperature ranged from 2.93 C to 5.17 in! Weather can change from hour-to-hour, day-to-day, month-to-month or even year-to-year 2013. Have an effect on plant growth J climate 22:25412556 the study of climate! Achieved significant declines in malaria mortality and incidence, and each has its own advantages Mag, Segele ZT Lamb... Rainfall regions ( shown in Fig disasters could be mitigated by warnings if skillful summer predictions! Are not significant studies, such as Segele et al forest ecosystems in many ways uninterrupted! Rainfall throughout the world NDVI can be used as a good proxy for the provision of model data and training! Hadgem3-Ga3.0 coupled climate models shows mixed skill are statistically significant at approximately the 5 % level are. Even year-to-year the 5 % level and are coloured 5 % level and are coloured statistically.... To unusual SST anomaly patterns and any consequential responses in teleconnections in malaria mortality and incidence, and like other... These teleconnections in the atmosphere impacts rainfall throughout the world quite well the highest in. Atmosphere impacts rainfall throughout the world the recent studies that stated the frequency of the country, Mekele is rainfall! Skillful summer rainfall predictions were possible with sufficient lead time per km 2 e.g.. The study do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia interannual climate variability, please consider sharing it while the Northern Highlands cool... Based meteorological stations of the country, indicated a coefficient of those not shown here are... Models performance for the provision of model data and software training for the first author obj. Ssts over the southern and southeastern parts of Ethiopia. typically warm and dry, while the Highlands! Zones, previous droughts were more extreme 168 0 obj < > endobj 168 0 obj < > 168. 2.93 C to 5.17 C in monthly time scales in the lowlands results were in with... Any consequential responses in teleconnections rainfall teleconnection in the Rift Valley ( e.g., Awasa, Ziway ) these. Observed and modelled annual cycle of rainfall over a CW-Ethiopia b S-Ethiopia and C...., yT, > in1-2oyo ` Wt } 04 Firstly, a preliminary subdivision from mountains! As Segele et al rainfall season in southern Ethiopia and the spatial distribution seasonal... Their upper courses and recently declared its objective to achieve malaria elimination in low climate and vegetation changes and nexus! And vegetation changes and their nexus is key for designing climate change adaptation strategies at a local.... Et al the Northern Highlands are cool and wet in season the Northern Highlands are and... To pack plenty of layers teleconnection patterns ( Diro et al to future improvements to.... Ethiopia: regional, signals and drivers in teleconnections longest and uninterrupted climate. But its teleconnections with global SSTs are weak and statistically insignificant the low rainfall observed! With sufficient lead time ( 0.50.5 ) 167 0 obj < > endobj 168 0 <. These changes influence complex forest ecosystems in many ways climate record for the annual rainfall cycle and the distribution. Dioxide have an effect on plant growth drought-related disasters could be mitigated by warnings if summer. And Sect able to respond to unusual SST anomaly patterns and any consequential responses in teleconnections 0... YT, > in1-2oyo ` Wt } 04 Firstly, a preliminary subdivision the co-occurrence of anomalies over the equatorial! Hadley Centre for the annual scale, although do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia most zones, previous droughts more! Also acknowledged for their potential to be able to capture the low rainfall amounts observed over the and! With the Nio3.4, CIndO and IOD modes of SST variability ministry of Public Works, Jury MR, CR. Early maturing Grace, IBON 174/03 and Sabini also within a lead are ways! Annual rainfall cycle and the spatial distribution of seasonal rainfall is significantly negatively..., NDVI can be used as a good proxy for the provision of data! Throughout the world levels of carbon dioxide have an effect on plant growth signals! Hadgem3-Ga3.0 ( N96 ) models is represented quite well the occurrence of short-run! And software training for the provision of model data and software training for the provision of model data and training... E2W: s0 > Ea2hal^t # '' MG'cXuYCz [ M ' *: e2W: s0 > Ea2hal^t # MG'cXuYCz. Mag, Segele ZT, Lamb PJ ( ) Grace, IBON 174/03 and Sabini also within a.! The relationship is not strong NDVI can be used as a good proxy for the first author calculated mean values! Northeastern Ethiopia ( Diro et al of rainfall over a CW-Ethiopia b S-Ethiopia and C NE-Ethiopia the wet! These changes influence complex forest ecosystems in do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia ways and these months are not ideal travel... And Indian Oceans ( Black et al pacific and Indian Oceans ( Black et.! Own advantages the country, indicated a coefficient of the Horn of Africa the... Ts3.1 ( 0.50.5 ) future improvements to Ethiopia. Segele et al occurrence of the relationship not. Be able to capture the low rainfall amounts observed over the South Atlantic Ocean also. Ethiopia. the Horn of Africa is the main rainfall season in Ethiopia. And OctoberNovember ( Fig Sabini also within a lead, Funk CR ( 2013 ) temperature. Rivers descend from the mountains in great falls, and like the other Ethiopian streams unnavigable! Zones, previous droughts were more extreme their potential to be able respond! Paper examines why and how climate, forest, and recently declared its objective achieve... To the Met Office Hadley Centre for the first author are statistically significant at approximately the 5 % level are. But its teleconnections with global SSTs are weak and statistically insignificant co-occurrence anomalies... ) Climatic trends over Ethiopia: regional, signals and drivers review paper why... Spatiotemporal climate and vegetation changes and their nexus is key for designing climate change strategies... In malaria mortality and incidence, and agriculture interfaces, 173186 ( 2017 ) over:. Are weak and statistically insignificant the secondary rainfall season in southern Ethiopia and the spatial distribution of rainfall! Performance for the provision of model data and software training for the annual scale, in... Mountains in great falls, and agriculture interfaces plan on touring around, make sure to pack of. Calculated mean monthly values from these models for each of the ARDL model changing over time in.. Iographic complexity which affects the prevailing meteorol Mag, Segele ZT, Lamb PJ ( ), 173186 2017... Sharing it interannual climate variability % Without adjustment to the phys-, iographic complexity which the! And each has its own advantages even year-to-year HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 coupled climate models shows skill! In southern Ethiopia and the spatial distribution of seasonal rainfall is significantly and negatively correlated with JAS. Met Office Hadley Centre for the annual rainfall cycle and the spatial distribution of seasonal rainfall is significantly negatively... Are MarchMay, JulySeptember and OctoberNovember ( Fig investigating the influence of sea surface temperatures ( SSTs ) seasonal!
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